• Inflation to average around 10%, by year-end 2003 and drop well under 10% by 2007.

• Real GDP growth to approach 7% by 2007.

• Exchange rate management that assures a stable currency and seeks to eliminate significant parallel market activity.

• Foreign exchange daily sales to be market responsive and largely in line with export receipts.

• International reserve levels that assure at least 6 months of imports.

• Money supply growth that is non-inflationary.

• Interest rates to be market responsive, with attempts to direct low interest funds to the real sector.

• Deficit financing not to involve inflationary borrowing from the central bank.

• Reference crude oil price for budgetary purposes to be $20 a barrel, underpinning a fiscal rule that stabilizes government revenues and expenditures.

• Expected crude oil production base of about 2 million barrels a day.

• Encouragement to be provided to state and local governments that show outstanding fiscal responsibility.

• A stabilization fund from crude oil sales above the budgeted price to be maintained for fiscal stabilization among all 3 tiers of government.

• Government will propose that at least 1 % of the federation account revenue be added to the stabilization fund.

• Fiscal and monetary policies to be complimentary.

• Federal government deficit per year of not more than 2.0% of real GD
   

Budgetary Discipline, Fiscal Stabilization and Civil Service Reform Government will pursue budgetary discipline and emphasize a fiscal rule the stabilizes the level of expenditure at all levels of government, and ensures the budget is predictably divided between recurrent and capital expenditures. To this effect, the budget will move away from a situation where the recurrent expenditure consumes the entire government revenue.

To help contain recurrent expenditures, government will seek to create a civil service that is smaller, highly skilled, motivated and more productive. To assure this. government will provide on-going training and competitive salaries to its workers. To help minimize budgetary uncertainties, government will implement a multi-year budget based on a medium term macroeconomic framework. The budget will reflect national priorities as discussed in this program.

Government will continue to administer due process and value for money audits on key projects, to achieve allocative efficiency. Debt Payments The government will continue tomake debt service payments.

However, debt payments as a share of government revenue will be in line with the share of expenditures on key social amenities and services. This will ensure that adequate resources are provided for the continued support of infrastructure development and other basic social services needed for poverty reduction and sustainable economic growth and development.

Efficient and Compassionate Economy The overall aim of policy is to establish the basis for achieving steady, realistic and achievable optimal medium term economic growth, creating productive jobs and reducing poverty. These are conditions that strengthen national unity, democracy and security.

Government will operate an economy that is efficient but compassionate. Efficiency will be derived from having a government that builds or supports mechanisms for maximizing productivity in the public and private sectors of the economy. Specifically, these mechanisms will support the achievement of optimal employment leve and the provision of working tools and training for workers. For the promise of a compassionate economy, government will support structures that will give every working Nigerian the opportunity for shelter, food, power (energy) and security, Housing Support:

In the effort to operate an efficient and compassionate economy, government will do the following:

• Streamline federal government land tenure systems for housing

• Provide infrastructure to facilitate and encourage private developers and mortgage finance institutions, so that every Nigerian who has a job can own a home.

• Government will act as a buyer of last resort when unforeseen market conditions lead to an oversupply of an homes, Growth of new dwellings will be targeted at no less than 3% a year.
  
  Food Support:
  
  Government's food support strategy will ensure the following:
  
  

  • serving as a buyer of last resort for domestic producers of staples and other basic agricultural products.

  • Modest food inflation,

  • Supporting the provision of basic infrastructure needed to deliver agricultural goods and foods to the people.

  • Adequate and timely supply of farm inputs.

  • Support of the cultivation of more arable land.

  • Agricultural production will be targeted at achieving an annual growth rate of no less than 8% by 2007.
    
     

  Power (Energy) Support:
  
  In 1999, electricity generation in Nigeria was under 1,500 MW. By the end of 2001. government efforts had brought electricity generation to 4,000 MW, a growth rate of almost 170% from 1999. To create jobs that will insure the ability of the average Nigerian to get food and shelter, government will encourage the provision of steady and adequate power supply by doing the following:
  
  

  • Ensuring that transmission and distribution systems are optimized.
    
    

  • Encouraging the private sector to participate in the generation and distribution of electricity.
    
    

  • Guaranteeing the purchase of any excess power generated by independent power producers.
    
    

  • Supporting electricity tariffs that will encourage investors, without being prohibitive to consumers.
    
    

  • Ensuring an average annual growth rate in electricity generation of about 20% over the 2003 to 2007 period.
    

• To assure economic activity of any kind, the legal environment must be conducive for business.
  
  

• Government will ensure that law and order are maintained by apprehending and punishing offenders according to law.
  
  

• The rule of law must prevail, and justice must not be delayed or denied.
  
  

• Community participation will be encouraged to support law enforcement.
  
   

Other Supportive Services and Infrastructure

In the quest to build a viable market economy government will optimize its provision of an enabling environment, involving the support of basic healthcare, appropriate education, water supply, sanitation and communication. These services or facilities will be used to ensure support for robust economic activity from the priority areas identified by government.

Education Government will support the provision of appropriate education and skills for running a private sector led economy. Priority will also be given to facilities that provide training to workers. The strategy to be adopted would include the following:

• Emphasis on the study of mathematics, reading skills, science and technology, including technical and vocational education.
  
  

• Periodic review of the national educational curricular for responsiveness global trends and domestic demands.
  
  

• Entrepreneurship development programs for promotion of self-employment.
  
  

• Budgetary allocation to education to reflect its priority status.
  
  Health Sector:
  
  The main policy objective of government in healthcare is the provision of sustainable basic health care delivery systems to all Nigerians. With this and other facilities, government will aim at improving the quality of life for the average Nigerian. Government will also seek to raise the national life expectancy rate from 53 years to 65 years and reduce the infant mortality rat from about 75 per 1000 life births, to under 50 per 1000 life births over the outlook period.
  
  Other important strategies will include:
  
  

• The support of private facilities that seek to establish health insurance schemes that would ensure access of Nigerians to healthcare specialist
  
  

• The support of sustained and aggressive health education. This would include sensitization programs to promote HIV-AIDS awareness and ensure overall preventive healthcare.
  
  

• Increased budgetary allocation to the health sector.
  
  

• Encouragement of local manufacturing of drugs and other healthcare related equipments.
  
  

• Budgetary allocation to healthcare to reflect its priority status.
  
  Water Supply:
  
  Since 2000, this administration has sunk over 9,000 boreholes throughout the country and provided irrigation and other forms of water supply to farmers. The aim of government will be to ensure access of every Nigerian to potable water supply Communication Sector Government will continue to pursue the acquisition and application of information technology to help support economic growth and global competitiveness. To help support agricultural production and food security government will also support schemes that help provide rural telephony.
  
  Transportation Government will continue to provide roads to facilitate commercial activity throughout the country. In particular, government will support the provision of rural roads to ensure that agricultural goods are easily delivered to the market. Complimentary, rail and other modes of transportation will be supported.
  
  Economic Diversification and Job Creation for 2003 through 2007
  
  For much of the past three decades, economic growth in Nigeria has been very unsteady, driven particularly by volatility in crude oil prices and generally poor governance. Indeed, the boom-bust economic cycle experienced in the country over the past several years is directly related to over-reliance on crude oil exports. To generate a stronger and stable growth rate. the economy would have to be diversified, to minimize the impact of changes in the crude oil industry. To achieve this, government will promote increased production in the non-oil sector of the economy, by creating a level playing field for private sector led activity. To expedite this, government will support increased investment in infrastructure and human capital, with particular attention to rural sector development.
  
  Real GDP growth will be targeted at 4% in 2003. The increased economic activity in the non-oil sector will support stronger and steady increases in real GDP growth over the outlook period, resulting in a growth rate of no less than 7% by 2007. To achieve this rate of growth, six (6) priority tracks of production, mainiy in the non-oil sector have been identified as follows:
  
  i. Agriculture and Agro-business
  
  ii. Solid Minerals Development
  
  iii. Other Manufacturing
  
  iv. Crude Oil
  
  v. Natural Gas
  
  vi. Tourism
  
  Job creation, productivity and higher personal income levels will be the goals of the economic diversification involving these key sectors. And the capital budget will reflect support to these sectors. Government will target a job growth rate that at least matches the rate of growth of the labor force or population. Since the population has been growing at about 2.8% per year, government will target a job growth rate of at least 3% a year, in the organized private sector.
  
  In addition, government will seek to legalize much of the informal (unorganized) private sector to enhance access to credit and expand the opportunity for stronger economic growth, particularly in the rural areas.
  
  Agriculture and Agro-business
  
  

• The main policy objectives for the agricultural sector, over the outlook horizon include food sufficiency, increased raw material production for the agro-allied industries and enhanced value added in agricultural exports. The strategy to be adopted is the provision of an enabling environment that will support private sector initiatives in the production of staples such as rice, maize, cassava, as well as export crops.
  
  Government will also set up mechanisms for ensuring the following:
  
  

• Stabilization of output and prices.
  
  

• Risk analysis and management
  
  

• Agricultural extension services.
  
  

• Access to credit facilities at affordable interest rates
  
  

• Access to improved seedlings.
  
  

• Priority activities in agriculture and agro-business will include cassava production, rice farming, and cotton production for textiles.
  
  

• Agricultural output growth is targeted to reach at least 8% by 2007.
  
  Solid Minerals Development
  
  Nigeria is blessed with very large deposits of solid minerals including coal, marble, tin, kaolin, gypsum, talc, feldspar, quartz, gold, bitumen, etc. So far, a very large proportion of these deposits are being exploited illegally, with negative effects on the environment. The inefficiency in this type of mining has resulted in substantial loss of revenue to government, and job opportunity.
  
  The government will prohibit illegal mining and support a genuine, economically viable, environmentally friendly and technically efficient mining and mineral processing industry.
  
  

• Government will support significant private sector participation, value-added processes and export-oriented growth in the solid minerals industry.
  
  

• Government will aim at establishing internationally acceptable geological laboratories and mapping schemes and develop a robust solid minerals database.
  
  

• Government has approved the establishment of the Bitumen Development Authority of Nigeria to expedite action on bitumen exploitation.
  
  

• Government will target solid minerals mining and development to generate as much revenue as crude oil and natural gas by 2007, with a view to rapidly diversifying the Nigerian economy.
  
  Other Manufacturing
  
  a. Other manufacturing activity that would result in the creation of intermediate goods will be supported and promoted. Government will support activities that produce the basis for engaging other resources.
  
  b. The main policy objective in all manufacturing will be to improve capacity utilization and productivity in the sector especially in the production of intermediate goods and services that are complimentary to other production. This will promote employment and boost personal income, thereby reducing poverty. Key strategies in the area would include:
  
  

• Sustainable linkage between industrial and agricultural production.
  
  

• Adequate capitalization of the newly established Bank for industry.
  
  

• Provision of long-term credit to the manufacturing sector, at affordable interest rates.
  
  

• Enhancement and promotion of a friendly investment climate through attractive fiscal incentives among others.
  
  

• Improved infrastructure to support lower and internationally competitive production costs for local manufacturing.
  
  Crude Oil Sector
  
  

• Government will support enhanced crude oil industry activity, with value-added downstream production that helps to link the sector with the non-oil economy, where more Nigerians can be engaged.
  
  

• Crude oil output is projected to rise by between 2% and 7% a year through the outlook period. Even so, crude oil output as a share of gross domestic product is anticipated to drop significantly by 2007, as the domestic economy becomes more and more diversified.
  
  

• Crude oil prices are projected to average around $20 a barrel over the outlook period.
  
  

• Government will seek to maximize the gains among all stakeholders in the crude oil production and related activities. In this regard, government will continue to ensure that crude oil producing communities, as stakeholders play a significant role in the industry.
  
  

• The major target for this sector is to add more value to production in the industry. To achieve this objective, government will seek to promote more liberalization in both upstream and downstream activities and aim to attract more capital investment into various downstream activities, including refineries, fertilizer and other petrochemical plants.
  
  

• Government will also seek to achieve self-sufficiency in the refining and distribution of petroleum products, through increased private sector participation.
  
  Natural Gas Sector
  
  

• As with the crude oil sector, government will support activities that provide a more robust growth and employment-generation in the natural gas sector.
  
  

• Government will work with appropriate partners to increase the ability to harness natural gas for exports and also enhance its utilization throughout the economy.
  
  

• Full utilization of associated gas will stamp out gas flaring in the country, and reduce the cost of related hazards.
  
  

• Private sector investments in the harnessing of non-associated gas will also be encouraged.
  
  

• We project that by 2007 Nigeria could receive as much revenue from is natural gas as currently obtained from crude oil sales.
  
  Tourism
  
  Because many Nigerian cities and regions offer striking scenic beauty, government will encourage and support the development of tourist activities in selected locations across the country. The main objective in this sector is to provide external markets for Nigerian art and culture. The strategies to be adopted would include the following:
  
  

• Appropriate packaging and marketing of Nigerian Arts and Culture.
  
  

• Improvement in the hospitality industry through appropriate legislation and maintenance of standards
  
  

• Encouragement of environmental sanitation and community beautification.
  
  

• Promotion of cultural and sporting exhibitions.
  
  

• Promotion of private sector led growth in tourism.
  
  

• Encouragement and attraction of international conferences and competitions aimed at showcasing the country's cultural heritage.
  
  

• Government will work to promote the production of cultural capital (goods and services) that will be used to produce entertainment.
  
  

• Ensuring that hotels and other hospitality facilities meet international standards.
  
  

• Government will aim to generate at least a 5% growth rate per year in the activities of the entertainment industry, encouraging reliance on locally manufactured goods and services, thereby strengthening linkages between it and the rest of the economy.
  
  Revenue Generation and Government Expenditure
  
  

• Federal government revenue collection will be broadened and systemized, using consulting services if necessary to improve collections through customs and "inland-revenue" sources.
  
  

• Assistance will be provided at all tiers of government to formalize and legalize much of the informal sector of the economy, such as providing title to land in order to further stimulate the economy and enhance government revenue.
  
  

• The priority sectors - agriculture & agro-business, solid minerals development, other manufacturing, crude oil, natural gas, and tourism will receive preferential budgetary allocations to help accelerate national economic diversification, job creation and poverty alleviation.
  
  Good Governance, Data Collection and e-government Government will strive to become more efficient and effective in delivering government services to the people. Policy analysis and advice will become more evidence-based. Given this, government will place a high priority on data collection, analysis and dissemination.
  
  

• Government will provide increased resources to the Federal Office of Statistics and other related agencies to enable them provide the tools and training needed for effective and timely data collection, management, processing and dissemination.
  
  

• Using electronics and other automation facilities, government will make its revenue and expenditure profiles increasingly available to all Nigerians and stakeholders. This so-called e-government initiative will assist in fostering democracy, transparency and efficiency.
  
  

• The Federal Government will strengthen National Planning Commission and its parastatals to manage its e-government and other mechanisms that support economic monitoring, planning, and development of policy models and advice.
  
  

• Government will also support National Planning Commission and its parastatals to deliver economic advisory services to state and local government agencies responsible for investment and economic growth.
  
  

• Fiscal discipline and peer review among state and local governments.
  
  

• Periodic seminars by federal government agencies for state and local government officials.
  
  

• Economic development units to be encouraged in all local government areas,
  
  

• Support from the federal government to state and local governments and other institutions will be incentive-driven.
  
  

• Exemplary state and local governments as well as exceptionally enterprising individuals will be commended as models and rewarded, to encourage competitive performance.
  
  

• Regular meetings between the Chief Executive of National Planning Commission and state commissioners responsible for economic development, Foreign Aid & Foreign Direct Investment Government will pursue policies that help attract foreign direct investment and official development assistance. The promotion of foreign direct investment in Nigeria will target not only foreign resources but also Nigerian resources abroad. Other resources are more likely to flow into the country when domestic and externally based Nigerian resources are seeking returns in Nigeria.
  
  In allocating official development assistance, priority will be given mainly to states or local governments that are preeminent in the pursuit of good governance.
  
  New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) & the African Union (AU)
  
  

• Government will sensitize the Nigerian public about the concept of NEPAD - the political and economic program of the AU.
  
  

Nigerian businesses will be provided with an environment that will support their ability to take advantage of opportunities arising from NEPAD and the African Union.

Structural Issues

• Privatization: Government will continue with its privatization program, as the economy is allowed to be more and more open to foreign investment. In addition certain federal government agencies would be made to adopt a commercial and profit-making mode until privatized.
  
  

• Growth Funds: Government will arrange for the creation of various growth funds in a program to be known as the New Initiative for Growth, Employment and Redistribution (NIGER). The growth funds will cover projects in the six priority areas identified by government, including agriculture & agro-business, with the aim of creating jobs and eliminating poverty.
  
  

• In poverty alleviation, the government's National Poverty Eradication Program (NAPEP) will be redesigned to ensure sustainability and amenability to private sector financing, and incorporated in the poverty reduction strategy.
  
  

• Nigerian Resources Abroad: A vigorous attempt will be made to attract Nigerian resources abroad. Principally, the Nigerians In the Diaspora Organization (NIDO) will be utilized to harness resources for the various growth funds, and for research as well as other ideas needed to sustain growth in the identified priority areas.
  
  

• Human Resource and Nigeria Volunteer Service: Using appropriate fit incentives, Nigerians will be encouraged to provide voluntary services for economic growth and social welfare improvement.
  
  Good Economic Experience & other Intangibles Government will support strategies that will give Nigerians a good experience in their day-to-day lives. Government will also make it possible for every visitor to Nigeria to have a good and memorable experience.
  
  Other intangibles to promote socio-economic well-being will include:
  
  

• Creating a more humane, caring and courteous society where every resident is valued and the plight of the disadvantaged is addressed.
  
  

• Soccer and other sporting activities among youths.
  
  

• Hosting of international conferences.
  
  

• Sanitation & community beautification competitions.
  
   

Conclusion

The aims of this economic program will be optimized with the participation of every Nigerian. Full support from the organized private sector and the civil society will be essential for achieving targets.